What’s in store for sugar prices? Navigating the global market in 2024


In this episode of the State of the Economy Podcast, Subramani Ra Mancombu and Matthew Biggin, a commodities analyst from BMI based in London, talk about the volatile world of sugar markets, and the factors shaping the industry’s future in 2024. 

In recent times, the sugar market has been on a rollercoaster ride, with global supplies dwindling and prices oscillating. Join Subramani Ra Mancombu and Matthew Biggin, a commodities analyst from BMI based in London, as they dissect the complexities of the sugar market and provide valuable insights for businesses and investors. 

With sugar prices around $0.22 per pound, there’s concern over supply shortages, particularly due to issues in India, Brazil, and the impact of El Nino on Asian supplies. The conversation then shifts to the key question: How will the sugar market behave in 2024.  

According to Matthew, despite a recent decline in prices, there’s an expectation of continued elevation compared to historical averages. He attributes this to India’s decision to restrict sugar cane use in ethanol production and Brazil’s record-breaking sugar exports. The discussion unfolds with a focus on Brazil’s dominance in the global sugar trade and the potential challenges it might face in the coming months. 

How will the market balance for 2024 be for 2024? Matthew elaborates on the global sugar surplus of approximately 0.5 million tonnes, driven by Brazil’s increased production. However, he hints at a potential deficit in the 2025 season, emphasizing the role of India and Brazil as critical players in determining global supply dynamics. 

Also discussed during the conversation is the impact of El Nino on sugar cane. Matthew details how this phenomenon has influenced global sugar prices, particularly in India and Thailand. While there’s optimism about an easing El Nino, the repercussions on the 2024-2025 crop are already visible. 

Matthew explains the influence of policy changes, pricing dynamics, and global energy trends on the allocation of sugar cane for ethanol production, especially in Brazil.

The podcast concludes with a closer look at India’s role in the sugar market, its production challenges, and the delicate balance it maintains between domestic priorities and global market influence. 

Host: Subramani Ra Mancombu; Producer: Siddharth Mathew Cherian

About the State of the Economy Podcast

India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups





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